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Monday, March 07, 2005

Broadband Barrels Ahead:
"As noted by eMarketer in the recent US Broadband report, 2004 was the year when the number of broadband Internet users came to outnumber dial-up users.

A new study by Ipsos-Insight concurs with this analysis, though it puts the percentage of broadband users, as a percentage of all Internet users, at almost 60%, higher than eMarketer's estimate of 50.8%. The US still trails some other countries in terms of broadband adoption, however. For example, France, urban Brazil and the UK grew by 59%, 50% and 45%, respectively, between the end of 2003 and 2004. In these countries, as in the global market overall, DSL is the dominant type of broadband service.

While DSL operators in the US upped their subscriber base by 4.2 million in 2004, an increase of 43% from 2003, it wasn't enough to catch up with cable operators, who expanded their base by 4.4 million, according to the Leichtman Research Group.

As a result, the number of cable subscribers in the US is still significantly greater than the number of DSL subscribers. Leichtman reports that there were 19.9 million cable subscribers at year-end 2004, compared to 13.3 million DSL subscribers.

These numbers concur with the latest figures from eMarketer, which peg cable households at around 60% of all broadband homes in the US, with ADSL comprising 37.6% and other technologies accounting for 2.6% (ADSL, or Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line, is by far the most common type of DSL service in the US). Though subscriber numbers and household numbers aren't directly comparable, translating them into market percentages should give an accurate picture of the marketplace.

Despite not gaining more subscribers than cable in 2004, DSL is still growing faster, and if this growth rate continues, it should narrow the gap significantly by 2008. eMarketer estimates that ADSL will grow at a compound annual rate of 22.7%, compared to only 14.9% for cable, between 2004 and 2008.

For further findings and analysis by eMarketer on this subject, read our latest report, North America Broadband, which examines the changing dynamic of the broadband market in the US and Canada."

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